Apple (Aapl 2.19%, Stock returned 30% in 2024, about $ 259 per share in late December. Factors contributing to that reverse included strong sales growth in service business and enthusiasm about new artificial intelligence (AI) features. But those bright spots have been seen with economic uncertainty and business stress since then.
On 2 April, President Trump underlined an aggressive slate of mutual tariffs, which would take the average tax on US imports in a century to its highest level. While those duties have been prevented for 90 days, there are no 145% total tariffs on sugar imports. And those duties can be particularly problematic because Apple creates most of its iPhones in China.
As a result, the Apple Stock was 33% per share to 33% $ 172 by the beginning of April. Interestingly, the stock had fallen more than 30% from its record high four times in the previous decade, but it always overturned rapidly in the following year. What investors should know here.
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Apple Stock has returned an average of 80% on an average after a decline of 30%
Apple Stock has declined by more than 30% to record high on four occasions since 2015, except for the current situation. The previous performance is never a guarantee of future results, but there is a clear pattern for those drawdowns: the stock has always resumed its loss and produced heavy returns over the next 12 months, as detailed below.
- April 2015: In May 2016, Apple Stock reached $ 33 per share in April 2015 before falling 32% to 32% per share. This drawdown was largely due to disappointing the financial results inspired by the sale of weak iPhone, but the investor’s confidence was restored as the company bowed into its burial service business. Apple reached a new high in February 2017, and the stock returned 73% during the year after 30% before its high.
- October 2018: The Apple Stock reached $ 58 per share in October 2018 before a decline of 38% to $ 36 per share in January 2019. The drawdown was mainly due to a business war with China. President Trump imposed tariffs during his first term, which increased the average tax on Chinese imports by 3% to 21% in 2018. But Apple hit a new high in October 2019, and Stock returned 74% in the year after 30% before its high.
- February 2020: Apple stock was around $ 82 per share in February 2020, before 31% decline in March 2020 in March 2020. This drawdown occurred as investors panicked about the potential impact of Kovid -19, which disrupted supply chains for trading closure worldwide. But Apple reached a new high in June 2020, and the stock returned 119% during the year after 30% before its high.
- January 2022: Apple Stock reached $ 182 per share in January 2022 before 31% fall in January 2023 in January 2023. Per share in January 2023. S&P 500 The bear market, which was brought by the possibility of recession itself, was surrounded by inflation and rapidly rising interest rates. But Apple reached a new high in June 2023, and the stock increased 54% during the year, which was 30% below its high level.
In short, the Apple Stock has fallen more than 30% from its high four times since 2015, and averaging average of 80% on average after its first closure below that level. We can use that figure to make an educated estimate of the future: Apple closed at $ 172 per share on 8 April, 30% below 30% below the record high in December. By April 2026, the stock price will rise by 80% to $ 310. If the performance matches the historic average, its current share is 51% reverse from the current share price of $ 205.
Importantly, how Apple Stock actually performs, it depends on financial results, and the tariff published by the Trump administration has made a big deal of uncertainty on that front.
Tariff apple mentioned by President Trump may be a serious headwind
President Trump has imposed a total tariff of 145% on goods imported from China. This is about seven times more than the average tariff on Chinese imports during its first term. How those duties will be affected, which makes 80% of its iPhones in China, partially considering is difficult to consider as the business policy almost daily changes.
For example, the US Customs and Border Protection published a note in this last weekend, with tariffs excluded from the tariff to China-made smartphones, computers and other electronics. But the story had moved by Sunday, President Trump said that no exception would be made. Instead, the administration says that electronics will be subject to separate tariffs which are effective in a month or two.
Beyond China, Apple also creates an important part of its products in India, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan and Vietnam. On 2 April, President Trump underlined mutual tariff rates from 24% to 46% on goods imported from those countries. But the administration has delayed those duties for 90 days since then, so the result remains highly uncertain. This also means that Apple is essentially sitting on its hands right now because there is very little insight in the future of the company.
Beyond the US trade policy, Apple has another problem in its misfire with Apple Intelligence, a slate of artificial intelligence features launched last year for the new iPhone model. Many analysts expected a historic iPhone upgrade cycle to follow the launch, but it is not yet physical. Instead, consumers seem relatively unaffected with AI features.
Additionally, Apple can be the most anticipated and useful upgrade associated with intelligence – the more sophisticated version of the conjunctival auxiliary Siri – delayed due to internal issues. According to Bloomberg, some features are expected to be launched in 2026, while others may not come up to 2027.
Looking forward, Wall Street hopes that Apple’s earnings will increase by 11% annually through FY 2026, which ends in September. The current assessment of this 30 -fold earnings seems somewhat expensive, especially given the uncertain nature of future American trade policy. But patient investors eager for their shares can consider buying a small situation today. Analysts can be highly pessimistic, in which case Apple may staging another strong reversal.
